The time it will take Congress to pass student aid legislation will depend on the fate of health care reform legislation. Democrat leaders are waiting to see what the outcome of the health care debate will be to determine how the student aid package will be moved through Congress.

Variable: Reconciliation -- The budget outline passed by Congress earlier this year included reconciliation instructions to create $1 billion in savings. The reconciliation process makes it harder to filibuster a bill in the Senate, but it makes provisions in the bill that don't have a direct budget impact vulnerable to elimination through the "Byrd rule."

• Scenario 1 -- Health Care Reform Passes Without Reconciliation: If Congress is able to pass a health care reform package through the normal legislative process, Congress will likely use the reconciliation process to pass the student aid package -- making it easier to pass in the Senate, but putting provisions in the House bill that don't directly impact the budget at risk. The bill's passage in the House seems likely, but several Democrat Senators with large Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP) employers in their state have expressed concerns. It would only take 51 votes in the Senate to pass a reconciliation bill.

• Scenario 2 -- Congress Uses Reconciliation to Pass Health Care Reform: If Congress is unable to pass health care through the normal legislative process, the health bill will likely be combined with student aid legislation to make one reconciliation bill. In this scenario, the fate of both healthcare and education legislation will be dependent on the outcome of the entire reconciliation bill. Student aid provisions would likely take a back seat to the main event that is healthcare reform. Although it would only take 51 votes in the Senate to pass a reconciliation bill, the combination of a healthcare bill adds an additional layer of complexity to the process.

• Scenario 3 -- Congress Is Unable to Pass Student Aid Bill: While Democrat leaders in Congress are determined to pass student aid legislation this year, there is a possibility that they won't have the votes to pass the bill. However, if they are unsuccessful, it is unlikely to deter them and they will likely resume their efforts in 2010. Democrat leaders have said they will not renew ECASLA.

Possible Timeline for Student Aid Legislation: Student aid legislation will not be brought before the Senate Education Committee until Senate leaders have decided whether to include healthcare in the budget reconciliation process. There are currently two healthcare bills in the Senate and three in the House that must be worked out before it is known whether there is enough support to pass healthcare legislation.

Steps Congress Must Take to Pass Student Aid Bill

• Senate is expected to introduce its version of the student aid bill after the debate on health care has been resolved

• The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee must then approve student aid legislation and report the bill to the Senate Budget Committee

• The full Senate must then approve the bill

• The House and Senate must then negotiate the differences between their two bills

• The House and Senate must then pass the negotiated version of the bill

• President Obama must sign the bill

Posted 10/19/09 to www.NASFAA.org. Redistribution to non-NASFAA institutions is prohibited. Please submit Web site questions or comments to Web@NASFAA.org.