NCES Projects Continued, But Slower Increase in Enrollment, Degrees Awarded Through 2026
By Joelle Fredman, NASFAA Staff Reporter
The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) projected that the number of students enrolled at postsecondary institutions and the number of degrees conferred will continue to increase through 2026, though at much lower rate than they did between 2001 and 2015.
In the report, Projections of Education Statistics to 2026, NCES provides data on enrollments and graduates from 2001 through 2015, the most recent year in which data has been analyzed, and compares it to what those numbers may look like by 2026. These figures come out as policymakers and stakeholders are continuing to debate the value of higher education, as the cost of attending college rises, and students are borrowing more to keep up.
NCES projected that the total enrollment in degree-granting institutions will rise from 20 million to 22.6 million between 2015 and 2026, an increase of 13 percent. Between 2001 and 2015, however, that number jumped by 25 percent, in part due to increased enrollment during the Great Recession.
NCES wrote that “an important factor in the enrollment projections is the expected change in the population of 18 to 29-year-olds from 2001 through 2026.” While between 2001 and 2015 the population of 18- to 24-year-olds slowly rose from 28,081 to 31,303, it is expected to level off around 30,700 between 2016 and 2026, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Breaking down the data and projections by age group, NCES predicted that the number of students between the ages of 18 and 24 will rise by 17 percent between 2015 and 2026, while that number increased by 26 percent between 2001 and 2015. Similarly, students between the ages of 25 and 34, as well as those older than 35, are expected to increase 11 percent and 4 percent, respectively, between 2015 and 2026, while between 2001 and 2015 those numbers jumped 35 and 13 percent, respectively.
This same pattern held true for different types of enrollments and different types of institutions. While the number of full-time students enrolled in postsecondary institutions increased by 30 percent between 2001 and 2015, NCES projected that number to only increase by 12 percent, or from 12.3 million to 13.8 million, between 2015 and 2026. Additionally, while the number of part-time students enrolled increased by 19 percent between 2001 and 2015, the number is expected to increase just by 15 percent, or from 7.7 million to 8.8 million, between 2015 and 2026.
Similarly, the number of students enrolled at public institutions is projected to increase to 14 percent between 2015 and 2026, compared to 19 percent between 2001 and 2015, and enrollment at private institutions is projected to increase just 11 percent between 2015 and 2026, following an increase of 46 percent between 2001 and 2015.
The projected increase in the number of degrees also fell significantly from the 2001 through 2015 data. The number of associate degrees award between 2001 and 2015 increased by 70 percent, while NCES only projected it to rise by 27 percent between 2015 and 2026. Additionally, the number of bachelor's degrees conferred was only expected to rise by 20 percent, following a 47 percent hike, and master’s degrees by 22 percent after a 56 percent jump.
Publication Date: 4/17/2018
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