By Maria Carrasco, NASFAA Staff Reporter
Declining birth rates, increased diversity, and changes in college-going behavior have led to recent changes in student populations, prompting many institutions to consider, or already implement, initiatives to navigate these shifts, while also working to increase student retention.
On Wednesday morning, NASFAA 2025 National Conference attendees gathered to hear Dr. Nathan Grawe, a professor of economics at Carleton College, explore different demographic trends in the U.S. and discuss how those trends intersect with evolving federal and state policies that ultimately impact higher education.
Grawe began his presentation by giving an overview of demographic trends for the U.S. student population. A key takeaway, Grawe noted, is that non-Hispanic white people are already becoming a minority group in the U.S. – specifically in 2020 for the under 18 age population. By 2033, non-Hispanic white people will become a minority for the 30-39 age population, and by 2050, this change will happen to the 50-59 age group.
Grawe also pointed out that much of the student population is shifting to different regions, particularly to states in the south, southeast, and northern Rockies.
Another key demographic change, Grawe noted, was that 2007 had a peak birth rate, meaning that every year after 2007 the birth rate has declined. As a result, Grawe explained, 2025 had a peak cohort size for domestic graduating seniors in the U.S., and institutions are now looking forward to a persistent period of decline.
“So where we might have been in a period where we could always expect larger cohorts to make our work easier, we're now entering into a period where that's no longer the case,” Grawe said. “And I think for some colleges and universities, that becomes a real challenge, because we grew up in a very, very different era.”
Grawe said some institutions aren’t prepared to address these demographic changes. Over the past few decades, many institutions have developed policies and practices focused on broad enrollment expansion, which Grawe said is no longer serving them.
During his presentation, Grawe provided a graph detailing the race and ethnicity distribution of college-going students from the 2018-19 academic year compared to the 2033-34 academic year. The graph shows a decline in the non-Hispanic white population for the 2033-34 year, along with a strong increase of the Hispanic population.
“There's obviously a large debate right now going on about what's the right level of immigration for the country,” Grawe said. “However, that gets resolved, we are still headed toward a more diverse future.”
Along with these demographic changes, institutions are also facing challenges with the perception of the value of higher education, Grawe said. Some other aspects that affect student matriculation are the “sticker price” to attend an institution, even if the net price is what the student would actually pay. Grawe noted that the College Cost Transparency Initiative is part of the solution to help make this information clear to students.
Grawe listed three institutions and provided examples of how they’re working to address falling matriculation rates and seeking to increase student retention. That includes the University of Southern Maine, California State University Dominguez Hills, and Rutgers University.
Ultimately, Grawe said that while the future of higher education will pose challenges, he hopes that institutions will work to shift with the evolving landscape.
“Can we be a system, not that gets to 2045 and comes out unchanged, but rather that gets to 2045 and says ‘that was not necessarily the funnest time in higher ed, but because of those stresses, we really leaned into our mission,’” Grawe said. “‘We really tried to stay true to who we were. We were making distinctions between really great ideas and so-so ideas. We met students where they were and we expanded access.’”
During a question-and-answer segment with Grawe, one attendee asked how financial aid professionals can evolve while working with less funding, particularly with potential cuts to the Pell Grant program proposed by the Trump administration.
Grawe said that while funding does pose challenges, institutions can be successful by working together with a shared governance ethos.
“There's nothing necessarily that we can do about Pell funding,” Grawe said. “But if Pell funding gets restricted in a way, and you're experiencing all of a sudden a $2 million hole, is that really an instrumental problem? That's a bad problem, but I'm confident we can work on it if we all agree that we can work on it.”
Our Today's News team is on the ground in Anaheim, keeping you up to date on NASFAA 2025 sessions and special events. Be sure to follow our social media channels, where you can share your experiences and connect with your colleagues. Check out all of our conference news coverage and stay tuned to Today’s News for more throughout the conference.
Publication Date: 6/26/2025
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