Panel Explores How the 2024-25 FAFSA Impacted College Freshmen Enrollment
By Maria Carrasco, NASFAA Staff Reporter
Preliminary data shows a decline in college freshmen enrollment for the 2024-25 year, the first decline since the fall of 2020. However, this time, instead of a pandemic, a panel of experts tied the trend to the tumultuous rollout of the 2024-25 FAFSA.
The panel, hosted by the National College Attainment Network (NCAN) on Tuesday, focused on preliminary findings from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center released last week on 2024-25 college enrollment, and how issues with the rollout of the 2024-25 FAFSA may have impacted it.
Doug Shapiro, executive research director at the National Student Clearinghouse, noted that while preliminary findings show undergraduate enrollment increased 3% for the fall 2024-25 term, there was a 5% decline in freshmen enrollment, which “completely erased” last year’s gains.
Shapiro noted this decline in freshmen enrollment is the first decline since the fall of 2020 term when freshmen enrollment dropped by 10%, largely due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Specifically, 2024-25 college enrollment at public non-profit four-year institutions saw a decline of 8.5% in freshmen enrollment, and private non-profit four-year institutions saw a decline of 6.5% in freshmen enrollment.
The overall decline was steeper for full-time freshmen enrollment during the 2024-25 fall term. It declined 6.3% compared to part-time freshmen enrollment, which increased by 1.7%.
For 18-year-old freshmen, enrollment for the 2024-25 fall term declined by 6%. For 19-to-20-year-old freshmen, enrollment dropped almost 9%. Shapiro said a reason why enrollment dropped more for 19-to-20-year-olds than 18-year-olds could be because 18-year-old high school seniors received more support and resources to complete the FAFSA to enroll in college, compared to 19-to-20-year-olds who didn’t necessarily enroll after their high school graduation.
While the panel focused on preliminary findings, Shapiro noted that the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s upcoming Current Term Enrollment Estimates report, released every January, will include final enrollment estimates for the fall 2024-25 term.
Looking at different races and ethnicities for freshmen enrollment, white students had the biggest decline at 11.4%, followed by multiracial students at 6.6%, Black students at 6.1%, Asian students at 2.8%, and Hispanic students at 1.4%.
Shapiro also touched on findings that show steady growth in certificate and associate degree enrollment, which could be driven by the changing labor market, or concerns about the value of a college degree and student loan debt.
Kim Cook, CEO of NCAN, said several factors could have impacted the decline in college freshmen enrollment. That includes issues with the 2024-25 FAFSA, in tandem with the first admission cycles post the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision banning race-conscious admissions. Additionally, Cook noted that there is an emerging narrative about the value of college, and some high school seniors may have chosen to opt-out from attending college.
Cook stressed that there is a strong correlation between FAFSA completion and postsecondary enrollment.
“Any and all of those could hit enrollment in their own ways,” Cook said. “And again, as we pointed out, they all follow on the heels of the high school graduating classes most impacted by COVID. However, there are some takeaways here that we can’t ignore.”
Panelist Catalina Cifuentes, executive director of College and Career Readiness at Riverside County Office of Education, spoke about her experience helping students complete the FAFSA at the state and county level. Cifuentes said she and many of her colleagues are thinking proactively about how to best serve students and their families when they complete the 2025-26 FAFSA, including multiple FAFSA nights and other services.
Cook noted that as the launch of the 2025-26 FAFSA nears, the Department of Education must ensure that the form is launched by December 1, with full functionality.
“While that's still a delayed opening of two months, we believe the difficult trade-off of waiting for full functionality will produce better outcomes for students to receive aid offers in time to support fall enrollment,” Cook said. “We'll continue to advocate for fixes to make that a smoother process, including address matching for contributors and the overall process for students from mixed-status families in particular.”
Publication Date: 10/31/2024
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