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Freshman Enrollment Increased Among All Demographics This Fall

By Maria Carrasco, NASFAA Staff Reporter

After a glitchy rollout of the 2024-25 FAFSA and fears that this rollout could hinder students from enrolling in college, new data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) found that freshmen enrollment this fall is up 5.5% from the previous year, with total postsecondary enrollment up 4.5% this fall.

According to the NSCRC, freshman enrollment grew among students from all different races and ethnicities, with Asian students up 6%, Hispanic students up 5.1%, Black students up 3.5%, and white students up 0.9% from the previous year. This data is part of the NSCRC’s “Current Term Enrollment Estimates” report, published annually every January and May to give final enrollment estimates for the fall and spring terms. 

This month’s findings come after an earlier estimate last year from the NSCRC “Stay Informed” report – which was created to quantify the effects of Covid-19 pandemic. The estimate claimed that freshman enrollment for fall 2024 decreased 5%. Earlier this month, the NSCRC announced an error in its “Stay Informed” report and clarified that freshman enrollment is actually up.

According to an interview with Inside Higher Ed, Doug Shapiro, NSCRC’s executive director, said the error has been present for every prior “Stay Informed” report going back to the organization’s initial report unveiled in 2020. Shapiro told Inside Higher Ed that more information on the cause of the error in the “Stay Informed” report will be released once available. 

Overall, total postsecondary enrollment rebounded above pre-Covid levels, the center noted. Specifically, undergraduate enrollment increased 4.7% and graduate enrollment increased 3.3% from the previous year. 

Bill DeBaun, National College Attainment Network’s (NCAN) senior director of data and strategic initiatives, created and maintains the organization's FAFSA Tracker, tracking FAFSA completions at the national and state levels. For him, the NSCRC’s findings were surprising considering fewer high school seniors completed the FAFSA. 

As of December 2024, NCAN’s FAFSA tracker shows a 9.6% decline in national FAFSA completions for the 2024-25 cycle from the previous year. And specifically for the class of 2024, 54.4% of high school seniors completed a FAFSA – that’s compared to 61.6% for the 2023 class. 

“If you had asked me on June 30th last year, staring down an 11.6% decline year over year in FAFSA completions, if I thought that incoming freshmen enrollment would go up this fall, I would have said no,” DeBaun said. “Because historically, it hasn't. [The NSCRC data] is very surprising, it's encouraging, it's welcomed, and we're working to better understand how this happened.”

DeBaun added that NSCRC’s findings show that even though the rollout was difficult, FAFSA simplification is working as intended, with more students having access to federal student aid to enroll into college. 

“Obviously, we had a difficult rollout last year, but the idea here was to increase the number of students benefiting from federal financial aid,” DeBaun said. “We know that affordability and a lack of financial aid are big challenges that students and families report, and so the boost in enrollment coming along with an expansion of Pell Grants is definitely encouraging for NCAN members and for advocates across the country who are interested in students getting a postsecondary pathway.”

 

Publication Date: 2/4/2025


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