What to Expect in Student Aid Policy After the 2026 Midterms
By Maria Carrasco, NASFAA Staff Reporter
With midterm elections just under a month away, the incoming Congress’s priorities for federal student aid policy and funding will take shape with new committee leadership and the possibility of a divided government, which will significantly impact legislative dynamics.
Currently, Republicans control both chambers of Congress – the House and Senate – along with the White House, under President Donald Trump. However, come election day – Tuesday, November 3 – there is a high possibility that Republicans will lose control of one of the congressional chambers. On election day, all 435 House seats are up for reelection, while 35 of the 100 total Senate seats are up for reelection.
Jon Fansmith, senior vice president for government relations and national engagement at the American Council on Education (ACE), told NASFAA that he believes after looking at public opinion, polling, prediction markets, and campaign financing, it’s likely that Democrats will take control of the House, and Republicans will maintain control of the Senate after election day.
“Midterm elections generally in the House are always bad for the incumbent president's party, and certainly as we've gotten into this election cycle, almost nothing the administration has done has really helped the electoral climate for Republicans,” Fansmith said. “Broadly, I think it's widely expected here in D.C. that Democrats will retake the House.”
While Democrats are favored to take back control of the House, the dynamics of the Senate races make it more challenging to flip the chamber. Fansmith noted that Democrats need to win four out of six contested Senate seats to take control of the Senate. Those six contested seats are in Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Michigan, and New Hampshire.
Fansmith said that Michigan and New Hampshire are good opportunities for Democrats to possibly win seats, but other states — Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska – will be harder for Democrats to win.
“Even as you see elections that might be close, Democratic candidates are really fighting uphill in those,” Fansmith said. “No matter what polling may say, no matter what money may say, Democrats just have a bigger burden too. They have to win more of those races than Republicans do.”
Even if Democrats take control of only one chamber, Fansmith noted that a divided government will impact the legislative process.
“Frankly, controlling both chambers doesn't necessarily add that much when the opposition holds the White House,” Fansmith said. “Really, control of one chamber is all that's really necessary to start throwing a lot of sand in the gears of the administration.”
Frederick Hess, senior fellow and director of education policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, noted that Democrats are likely to focus on oversight of the Department of Education (ED) if they take control of one, or both, chambers, such as the Trump administration’s efforts to dismantle ED and ongoing legal challenges stemming from various executive orders. When it comes to student aid policy, Hess said there might not be many changes, but he noted that Democrats could make efforts to change how the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is implemented.
“The likelihood of the Democrats actually moving something, of them wanting to work with the White House, of them all getting on the same page if something gets signed, seems unlikely,” Hess said. “There's likely to be changes as a result of oversight and pushback, but on something like student aid, outside of maybe at the edges of some of the rulemaking, there's unlikely to be any change for the next two years.”
Nalia Medina, NASFAA’s assistant director of government relations, said that any changes to the makeup of Congress could shift higher education policy priorities and impact funding levels for student aid programs. According to Medina, this midterm election is a good reminder for financial aid offices to continue advocating for federal student aid.
“This is a good opportunity for the community to continue advocating, informing, and educating decision-makers on the importance of higher education and student aid funding in order to protect the programs and provide robust increases to student aid.”
How the Midterm Results Could Impact Federal Student Aid Funding and Policy
November’s election results will directly impact how the student aid programs are funded. Currently, the federal government is funded through a continuing resolution through December 11, for fiscal year (FY) 2027, meaning student aid programs are currently funded at the same levels as FY 2026.
However, if this Congress does not finalize spending levels for FY 27 before the new session begins, the incoming members will have to complete the delayed budget process, and if either chamber flips, Democrats would have more negotiating power over the appropriations process.
“We’ve seen an increased reliance on continuing resolutions throughout the last several years as Congress has faced competing policy priorities and more partisan politics,” Medina said. “While continuing resolutions provide temporary funding for the government, they can create uncertainty for students and schools by delaying final funding decisions for the student aid programs.”
For Medina, another big issue Congress will need to face is the projected funding shortfall in the Pell Grant program. Earlier this year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that by the end of FY 2027, the Pell Grant program will face a funding shortfall of nearly $17 billion.
Notably, the House suggested addressing the Pell shortfall in its FY 2027 budget proposal by eliminating funding for subsidized federal student loans, which is a concern for NASFAA.
“We saw the House propose $15 billion to address the projected funding shortfall for fiscal year 2027, which was a great thing,” Medina said. “But it did so by eliminating funding for the subsidized loan program. We want to make sure that funding for one critical program doesn’t come at the expense of other need-based aid programs, and that the programs are protected and funded for all of the students that benefit from them.”
NASFAA will continue to advocate for robust increases to all the student aid programs, Medina said, including addressing the projected funding shortfall in the Pell Grant program without cutting the maximum award, along with increased funding for campus-based aid programs, including Federal Work-Study (FWS) and the Federal Supplemental Educational Opportunity Grant (FSEOG) programs. In the past, Republicans have proposed eliminating funding for the FSEOG program.
Fansmith said that while there have been White House proposals to eliminate certain programs, such as FSEOG and Federal TRIO programs, funding for student aid programs has remained relatively stable. He noted that if Democrats take control of one or both chambers, they’ll have extra leverage in how the government – including aid programs – gets funded.
Fansmith added that with any change in congressional control, there could be other higher education priorities that Congress decides to take on outside of the appropriations process.
Hess shared a similar sentiment to Fansmith, noting that because funding for student aid programs hasn’t seen significant cuts from either the Trump or Biden administrations, it is unlikely the programs will see much change in funding after the November midterms.
“It's important for folks to remember that there haven't been any significant budgetary changes to Pell from the Biden and Trump administrations,” Hess said. “So it's not like there's going to be big budgetary fights about funding levels for these things.”
Other Higher Education Priorities
One such priority is the ED’s definition of a professional degree, Fansmith noted, along with new loan limits implemented under the OBBBA. Currently, the definition is facing legal challenges, and a final court ruling has yet to be made.
This topic could come to a head as Republican lawmakers may be hearing from their constituents regarding their concerns with ED’s definition of professional degree. It’s likely these priorities make their way as riders in appropriations bills — loosely related issues tacked on as amendments — since those pieces of legislation must be passed to continue funding the government.
“If Democrats win in the House, and certainly if they win the House and the Senate, their views about how that statute should be interpreted, how much leeway to give the Department of Education, might find their way into appropriations bills,” Fansmith said. “They'll have greater leverage to say, ‘One way or the other, we're going to have a vote in this process.’”
As to whether Democrats would hold enough power to overturn or rescind possible provisions of OBBBA, Fansmith said it's important to keep in mind that Congress is already hard-pressed to pass legislation outside of the reconciliation or appropriations processes. With Democrats controlling one chamber, it’s unlikely they could get legislation passed and signed into law by the White House.
However, Fansmith noted that Congress may have the opportunity to act on how certain parts of OBBBA are implemented.
“I do think there's a growing awareness among members of Congress, and I mean deliberately Republicans and Democrats, about some of the problems that were caused by a relatively hasty reconciliation process, how some of the things around loan limits and repayment plans are going to have adverse impacts in ways that maybe weren't fully understood at the time of reconciliation of OBBBA being passed,” Fansmith said. “There's going to be the opportunity in a divided government to work in a bipartisan way on what I would call technical fixes.”
Hess also noted that after the midterms, Republicans will be focused on implementing OBBBA, particularly the accountability provisions.
“The Republicans are likely to lose the House. They may lose the Senate,” Hess said. “If that happens, mostly it'll be a question of what they can do through executive action for the next few years. When it comes to student funding, it doesn't appear to be high on the list of executive priorities.”
Looking Ahead at Higher Education Leadership in Congress
Beyond a shakeup in broader congressional power, there will be changes in leadership on education committees, with Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee, not returning to the Senate in the new year after losing his primary in May.
Fansmith said that Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), the second-in-command on the Senate HELP Committee, may be a candidate to take Cassidy’s leadership position. But because Paul is also a contender to lead other Senate committees, there's considerable uncertainty about who will lead Senate HELP, Fansmith added.
Another possible candidate to lead Senate HELP is Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas), Fansmith said, due to his work on education policy. However, Marshall may face a difficult reelection, and news reporting is indicating that Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) may seek leadership on Senate HELP.
As for ranking members of Senate HELP, Fansmith said it's likely that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) will continue his leadership if Republicans retain control of the chamber, though he could return to chairing the committee if Democrats win the Senate.
“Certainly on the Republican side, I think there's a lot of uncertainty, and I think that's probably unfortunate for us because even though Cassidy has only been in that leadership role for a limited period of time, he's been very pragmatic,” Fasmith said. “He's made a lot of efforts to address pretty technical things, as NASFAA members certainly know, dialing in on some very specific elements of financial aid and student policy that I think have been positively received not only on both sides of the aisle, but by representatives of students and institutions.”
On the House side, if Democrats take control of the chamber, the leadership of the House Education & Workforce Committee, currently chaired by Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.), could be up for grabs.
Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.), the current ranking member of the committee, sent a letter in September defending his position as its leader amid a challenge from Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.). Additionally, Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Ore.) announced in early October that she would be challenging Scott.
Fansmith noted that friction between the establishment of the Democratic Party and the more progressive wing, which is less beholden to seniority traditions, may play out in committee assignments in the new Congress.
“Given how central education has been in a lot of national policy debates, there are a lot of members who will want to take a much more active role and may not be willing, even if Chairman Scott seeks to return that role, to defer to his leadership,” Fansmith said.
If Republicans retain control of the House, Walberg could continue leading the Education & Workforce committee if he receives a waiver from his Republican colleagues, which is needed in order to return to the leadership position during the next congressional session. It’s also possible that Republicans consider a new chair due to seniority rules.
Hess said it’s likely that Scott will retain his leadership position on the House Education & Workforce Committee, and Sanders, if the Democrats win the Senate, would lead Senate HELP. He added that it’s likely the Democratic party will focus on issues related to affordability, but noted that under a divided Congress, it's unlikely they’ll be able to pass much legislation.
“I think that Democrats will prefer to focus on things that unite the whole of the party, and that's going to be stuff around affordability, and pushing back on Trump's unilateral actions, executive overreach, and approach to civil rights,” Hess said. “If Trump had pursued big cuts to funding, say for Title IV, for Pell, you could see a lot of energy … on trying to restore funding, but there haven't been those cuts. Other changes, they need to pass legislation, and that's unlikely to happen, which means not a lot is likely to change for the next few years.”
For NASFAA, as another election comes to a head, the association is dedicated to working with lawmakers from both parties to support the student aid programs.
“We are always open to working across the aisle with Republicans and Democrats on our policy priorities – whether that’s working with an office on legislation or providing feedback on a specific issue,” Medina said. “We’re eager to see who will be chairing these committees, as they are the committees of jurisdiction for the policy issues that are important to NASFAA and financial aid administrators.”
Stay tuned to Today’s News for updates on the midterm election and incoming Congress.
Publication Date: 10/13/2026
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